Kentucky Derby 137 runs later today at Churchill Downs: here are the horses, jockeys and trainers, and morning line odds. But most importantly, here's my analysis. Why should you listen to me? Because I've made 14 bets in 2011 and won two of them.
Full disclosure: I have no idea what I'm doing when it comes to handicapping. Bet at your own risk.
Select a link for more information on the horse.
1. Archarcharch, Court/Fires, 10-1
He's peaking, has won three stakes races (including one over Derby horse Nehro) and is with his regular jockey. He's also been having great workouts. Negatives: spellchecking his name is a bitchbitchbitch.
Conclusion: I like this pony.
2. Brilliant Speed, Rosario/Albertrani, 30-1
He doesn't run well on dirt. The Kentucky Derby is run on dirt.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
3. Twice the Appeal, Borel/Bonde, 20-1
The two things that appeal to me (pun!) are that he's won three of his last four races and his jockey, Calvin Borel, has won three of the last four Derbies. He's only race once in a graded stakes race, although he did win it.
Conclusion: I kind of like this pony.
4. Stay Thirsty, Dominguez/Pletcher, 20-1
According to today's Daily Racing Form, "He's has now run twice in Grade 1 route races and been beaten 14-plus and 16-plus lengths." I don't know what a "route race" is, but I do know that getting beaten by 14-plus and 16-plus lengths is not good.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
5. Decisive Moment, Clark/Arias, 30-1
He has not won a graded stakes race. The Derby demands major leaguers.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
6. Comma to the Top, Valenzuela/P. Miller, 30-1
This horse is riding with its jockey for the first time and has never beat any of other Derby horses. Of course, the gelding's never competed against them.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
7. Pants On Fire, Napravnik/Breen, 20-1
He led three straight races and lost. We've got a name for that where I'm from. It's not "Derby winner."
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
