Jeff Brohm is college football’s Human Magic 8 Ball. He should exchange his Western Kentucky University cap for a fortune teller’s turban posthaste.
The Trinity High School and University of Louisville alum might not be omniscient but the odds seem to favor him. Brohm isn’t just guessing right when it comes to two-point conversions. He and his staff seem to know something others don’t.
The past three games for WKU have been decided by two-point conversion attempts. Brohm has been on the winning side all three times: a successful conversion and two defensive stops. The latest triumph resulted in last week’s 14-12 victory at Vanderbilt – arguably the most significant season-opening victory in program history.
Based on available data, the two-point conversion is roughly a coin toss – about a 50-percent success rate. The odds someone would correctly guess “heads” three straight times isn’t terribly shocking. However, considering three straight games have come down two-point conversions that’s an amazing run of either expert coaching or sheer luck.
For the most part, winning one-score games isn’t a skill. But coaches should be credited with putting players in position to succeed. Here’s a look at what Brohm’s Hilltoppers have done over the past three games – three landmark wins for a program that has only been a bowl eligible member since 2009.
Let’s take a look at Brohm’s three-game run:
Nov. 28 – WKU 67, No.19 Marshall 66 OT: Rather than kick an extra-point, Brohm goes for it all. Quarterback Brandon Doughty finds wide receiver Willie McNeal for the game-winning two-point conversion in overtime. The Hilltoppers earn their first ever victory over a ranked FBS program.
Dec. 24 – WKU 49, Central Michigan 48: Central Michigan score a wild touchdown late TD. But WKU defensive back Wonderful Terry breaks up a pass on Central Michigan’s two-point conversion. That preserves WKU’s first bowl win as a FBS member.
Sept. 3 – WKU 14, Vanderbilt 12: On Vanderbilt’s two-point try, WKU defensive back and Butler High School graduate Joe Brown stops Nathan Marcus a yard short of the goal line. Hilltoppers pick up their first season-opening true road victory since 1999.
There’s an interesting twist to the Vanderbilt game. Linebacker Nick Holt told the Bowling Green Daily News that WKU knew the two-point play the Commodores were going to run. If that is indeed true, that is a concrete example of good coaching with some luck mixed in.
Brohm deserves some good fortune. It wasn’t long ago his Hilltoppers were decidedly unlucky. In four of their five losses last season, they blew double-digit leads. The only defeat that was completely out of hand was a 59-10 implosion at Louisiana Tech.
Thursday night’s opponent is Louisiana Tech. What happens if that game is decided by a two-point conversion?
Bet on Brohm.
